YTD: 2-2
Units: -.55
Plays:
Chicken Little Over 33.5 million (-150) <1.5/1>
Jarhead Under 24 million (-115) <1.15/1>
Chicken Little - This line seems a little low. The movie is getting a very wide release (over 3,600 theaters) and computer animation movies usually do very well. Robots, Madagascar and Valiant, which were all computer animation movies aimed at kids, all opened this year with different results. Madagascar opened with 47.2 million in 4,142 theaters (11,431 average per location), Robots opened with 36 million in 3,776 theaters (9,545 average per location) and Valiant, which unlike the other two had no marketing and no confidence from the studio, opened with 5.9 million in 2,014 theaters (2,936 average per location). Pixar, in the past, has used this weekend with great success in opening a kids movie (Monsters Inc. and The Incredibles). Although Disney may not be as popular as Pixar, that name will still bring out families and this being its first foray into computer animation should bode well for it. I look for Chicken Little to open with about 54 million (most projections I've seen are not even close to this number (33-37 million) however, I believe many people are underestimating this movie). Needless to say, even if my ballooned projection is off, I still feel this movie will go over.
Jarhead - This is the third weekend in a row that a line has jumped out at me as being way off. While the movie does look good, 24 million is a bit high. This movie is opening in a moderate release of 2,400 theaters, which means it would have to average 10,000 per location to go over. Being that it is rated R and no previous fanbase, I don't see that happening. I look for an opening of about 16 million. However with that being said, the company is really pushing this movie as commercials are airing quite a bit, and the awareness is building. I would not be surprised to see this movie go over as this line seems like a trap. Usually when a line is off, the line will go up heavily on one side, but this line over the course of 7 hours has stayed about the same. Nonetheless, I still feel this will go under.
Units: -.55
Plays:
Chicken Little Over 33.5 million (-150) <1.5/1>
Jarhead Under 24 million (-115) <1.15/1>
Chicken Little - This line seems a little low. The movie is getting a very wide release (over 3,600 theaters) and computer animation movies usually do very well. Robots, Madagascar and Valiant, which were all computer animation movies aimed at kids, all opened this year with different results. Madagascar opened with 47.2 million in 4,142 theaters (11,431 average per location), Robots opened with 36 million in 3,776 theaters (9,545 average per location) and Valiant, which unlike the other two had no marketing and no confidence from the studio, opened with 5.9 million in 2,014 theaters (2,936 average per location). Pixar, in the past, has used this weekend with great success in opening a kids movie (Monsters Inc. and The Incredibles). Although Disney may not be as popular as Pixar, that name will still bring out families and this being its first foray into computer animation should bode well for it. I look for Chicken Little to open with about 54 million (most projections I've seen are not even close to this number (33-37 million) however, I believe many people are underestimating this movie). Needless to say, even if my ballooned projection is off, I still feel this movie will go over.
Jarhead - This is the third weekend in a row that a line has jumped out at me as being way off. While the movie does look good, 24 million is a bit high. This movie is opening in a moderate release of 2,400 theaters, which means it would have to average 10,000 per location to go over. Being that it is rated R and no previous fanbase, I don't see that happening. I look for an opening of about 16 million. However with that being said, the company is really pushing this movie as commercials are airing quite a bit, and the awareness is building. I would not be surprised to see this movie go over as this line seems like a trap. Usually when a line is off, the line will go up heavily on one side, but this line over the course of 7 hours has stayed about the same. Nonetheless, I still feel this will go under.
